Never Back the Early Kick Off – Turn of Phrase or Revealing Truth?

Across the wide and varied footballing spectrum, many a fan has found themself in the unenviable situation of having to decide whether or not to throw caution to the wind and place their faith in (…and more often than not their money on) the early kick off. In doing so the hopeful individual must immunise themselves from the inevitable friendly gibes which goad that their faith is misplaced and forget the countless times in the past where they’ve been let down by a match that didn’t live up to expectation.

“Never back the early kick off” is a phrase which has gained notoriety online amongst fantasy football managers and casual matchday gamblers alike. It’s something which has been propagated on social media so much that it can now be considered pseudo-religious. Many enthusiasts will now follow suit without any empirical data which justifies doing so.

My aim is to assess the myth of the early kick off and consider whether you really should avoid the 12:30pm time slot when it comes to making crucial decisions such as choosing your FPL captain for that week or putting together that invariably optimistic betting acca.  

Before that though, where does such a phrase originate? From my personal experience, its connection to Fantasy Premier League is undeniable. For the seasoned player, the dilemma of a captaincy choice is always a tough decision no matter whether the player is facing a newly promoted team or some perennial mid-table opposition; this is before you have even considered what time they’re playing. In choosing to go against the grain, you will have to push against a torrent of differing opinions, and more often than not a voice in the back of your head crying out for you to play it safe and trust the more favourable 5:30pm fixture.

Why though? Captaining a seldom chosen player who goes on to yield high reward can considerably boost your league ranking, however, if it doesn’t pay off you must spend the rest of your weekend in a state of trepid anticipation as you await the inevitable Erling Haaland double against a seemingly harder opponent.

Any FPL manager will know how much a poor return from your captain can not only affect your game week position, but also your mood. Therefore, confirmation bias plays a significant role; fans will often look for data which substantiates their beliefs. For example, if a manager is looking for a reason to captain Son-Heung Min in the 5:30pm fixture as opposed to Mohamed Salah at 12:30pm, more often than not they’ll find it. The same applies to gambling. Whilst I’m not much of a gambler, I’m led to believe that the prospect of falling at the first possible hurdle can prove unsettling for an any punter reliant on different combinations of goals scored or cards received.

As a result, superstition prevails. For those who are faint of heart, I would recommend hedging your bets and trusting the later kick off to be the main contributor to your points tally that weekend.

However, is there any concrete data to back up this claim?

According to a study carried out by sports data analyst outlet Infrostrada, in the period between the start of the 2006/07 and the end of 2010/11 Premier League seasons, there tended to be more goals in the early kick off (2.73) than its ever-present 3PM counterpart (2.65).

More recently, online periodical The Analyst published data which recorded different metrics since the start of the 2016/17 season which revealed that the 12:30PM kick-off was only surpassed by different two times slots in terms of expected goals (Xg) (Saturday 5:30pm and Sunday 4:30pm) and two different times slots (Sunday 4:00pm and Sunday 4:30pm) for goals per game. This shows that you are not necessarily right to completely discount the early kick-off unless it is in favour of the early evening kick off that as the same set of data shows that the Saturday and Sunday evening showings have more penalties, more expected assists (Xa) and more shots on target.

Yet the data does also show that there are statistically more red cards in the early kick off (0.19) with the closest timeslot being 0.14 for 19:45pm slot on Tuesday. This can have the knock-on effect of spoiling a game as once reduced to ten men a team are less likely to be able to construct any meaningful attacking scenarios whilst simultaneously, they are more likely to become more compact in an effort to defend a score line. This lends some credence to our well-known mantra, but it doesn’t wholly justify a decision to avoid it entirely.

Are there any external factors affecting this data? Premier league managers, particularly those of European teams, would point to fixture congestion as a significant contributor.

Teams who have played additional matches on top of the standardised 38 will be comparatively more fatigued than some of their rivals so therefore will be more likely to lack consistency and fluidity due to squad rotation. This could make them less likely to score at one end and indeed more likely to concede at the other. For example, West Ham enjoyed a lengthy run to the semi-final of Europe’s secondary competition in the 2021/22 season where they were eventually beaten on aggregate by winners Frankfurt in May. However, whilst fans will have undoubtedly enjoyed this European adventure, the sheer number of games began to catch up with the squad. In the first ten games of the following season they registered an average Xg per game of 1.63, which is a stark contrast to the final ten games of the season where they only managed an Xg of 1.21. In that same sample range, they went from conceding an average of 1.1 goals per game in the first ten fixtures to a 1.6 goals per game in the final ten, including only a singular clean sheet. This shows that if you are inclined to believe such superstitious warnings then the need to avoid the early kick off becomes increasingly relevant as the season goes on.

Another factor relates to the way players prepare and fuel themselves before kick-off. James Collins is ex-international nutritionist who became Arsenal’s very first nutritionist in 2010 and more recently has been an integral cog in various sporting successes such as France’s World Cup win in 2018 and Chelsea’s Champions League victory in 2021. He has consistently underlined the considerable impact insufficient nutrition can have on players’ performance levels. Sports physiological demands continue to change with each new season to the extent that the overall standard and intensity in which it is played is greater than the last.

In a recent interview with the Athletic Collins said that “One of the big things we see with players is that 3pm kick offs, the players fuel really well.” “However, for lunchtime kick-offs, they’re often under-fuelled, and that can result in energy levels not being as high.” “Equally, after evening kick-offs, players are sometimes coming for the next game under-recovered – which means they’re not refuelling properly after the match. If you’re playing in Europe, or dealing with fixture congestion, it means that incrementally, you’re going to be under recovering, which will result in residual fatigue.”

This shows that the claims to avoid early kick-offs are somewhat vindicated, however, as clubs continue to invest into any sort of area which can give them even a fractional advantage on their opponents, it is inevitable that this will be a diminishing factor in years to come.

Overall, it is clear that there is some truth to this claim, however, not enough for me to believe it in its entirety. Inevitably I’ll continue to avoid the early kick-off in the same way that I frantically look around for another magpie if I see one loitering on their own and more often than not end the weekend wishing I’d backed Haaland to score in the first of many fixtures that weekend.